Boys Basketball Predictions: Drake Boys Picked to Wear MCAL Crown

Gotta say: I love the Marin County Athletic League's decision to open the basketball playoffs to all 10 teams this season. It couldn't have picked a better year.

MCAL boys basketball play began last night with the aforementioned 10 hopefuls all having a legitimate chance of making the North Coast Section championships.

OK, it'll be tough for Tam to get there. It's 4-8 non-league record is worse than 19 other teams vying for no more than 16 spots in the Division III event.

But the Red-tailed Hawks did make it to NCS last season despite not having a winning record, and with five other MCAL clubs competing for spots (all of which have better records at this point), the chances of making up ground over the course of 14 league games and up to four playoff games are decent.

The playoff contests could be critical. That's where even the last-place finisher in the MCAL regular season will get a chance to pad its credentials with a couple of wins, including some over teams also up for NCS at-large berths.

So this season, as you monitor the MCAL standings, you're advised not just to look at the top. Those teams undoubtedly will be headed to NCS whether they win even one MCAL playoff game or not.

Rather, keep an eye on the bottom half of the ladder. This is where the real fight for NCS bids will be occurring … and thanks to the new format, continuing right through the MCAL playoffs.

Here's my predicted order of finish in the league standings and, more important, each team's NCS outlook:

1. Drake

Non-league record: 6-5

2010 postseason: Lost in NCS Division III first round.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: Let's be honest, the MCAL champion could be any of seven or eight teams, two of whom captured NCS titles last season. Forget the Pirates' lackluster record. Their five-point loss to unbeaten Division I power San Ramon Valley stamps them as not only a serious MCAL contender but a probable NCS high seed in Division III.

2. Redwood

Non-league record: 7-5

2010 postseason: Won NCS Division II championship.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: It's unlikely the Giants will be able to earn as high as the No. 2 seed it took into last year's NCS tournament, having already gotten thumped pretty harshly by one of Division II's top teams, Casa Grande. But a defending champ should be able to get in even with a losing record, so Redwood enjoys a huge comfort zone entering league play.

3. San Marin

Non-league record: 7-4

2010 postseason: Lost in NCS Division III first round.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: A preseason-closing three-game winning streak, including a victory over Division III Sonoma Valley, has positioned the Mustangs well for a return to the NCS this season. MCAL play should be nothing more than a seeding exercise between San Marin and at least three of the four other Division III teams (Drake, San Rafael, Terra Linda and Novato) that enter league play with winning records.

4. Marin Catholic

Non-league record: 7-5

2010 postseason: Lost in NCS Division IV first round.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: The Wildcats have an easier path to NCS than most MCAL teams because they play in Division IV. The key to getting at least one home game after they get there could be finishing ahead of Justin-Siena in the MCAL race as the Braves completed the preseason with the second-best record (8-2) in Division IV.

5. San Rafael

Non-league record: 9-2

2010 postseason: Did not qualify in NCS Division III.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: How jumbled is the MCAL picture this season? The Bulldogs, who failed to make NCS last year after losing 10 of 14 league games, take the league's best record (9-2) into MCAL play. That doesn't guarantee the Bulldogs anything, but this sure helps: San Rafael's six-game winning streak entering the league schedule came exclusively against Division III competition.

6. Terra Linda

Non-league record: 8-4

2010 postseason: Lost in NCS Division III quarterfinals.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: A win over Novato and loss to Drake (last night's opponent) has given an early indication of what to expect from the Trojans in league play. A split with Albany, an 8-seed in NCS Division III last season, is perhaps a better clue the Trojans are in the fast lane headed back to NCS play next month.

7. Branson

Non-league record: 6-6

2010 postseason: Won NCS Division V championship.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: It isn't about making NCS that's important to the Bulls. They're in. It's about being capable of making the type of run that produced the title as the No. 3 seed last season. The Bulls are advised to gather some momentum in the next seven weeks. The team they beat in the Division V finals a year ago, St. Joseph Notre Dame of Alameda, already owns an 18-point win over the Bulls this season.

8. Justin-Siena

Non-league record: 8-2

2010 postseason: Lost in NCS Division IV first round.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: As their record indicates, the Braves certainly are capable of finishing much higher than this. Heck, one of their eight wins came against a Division I team (Foothill of Pleasanton). Even though most of their wins came against competition far less than what they'll face in the MCAL, the Braves already are assured an NCS Division IV seeding far higher than last year's No. 12.

9. Novato

Non-league record: 7-5

2010 postseason: Did not qualify for NCS Division III.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: The Hornets had a similar record last preseason, then went 6-8 in MCAL play and probably missed out on an NCS bid by one or two wins. If this season plays out the same way, they'll get a shot at those critical victories in the everyone's-invited MCAL playoffs.

10. Tam

Non-league record: 4-8.

2010 postseason: Lost in NCS Division III first round.

Prospects of making NCS in 2011: The Red-tailed Hawks lost all three games they played against Division III competition in the preseason, so they've got their work cut out for them if they want a return engagement at NCS. Matchups with San Marin, Novato and Terra Linda over a six-day stretch that begins Thursday should give them an early indication just how uphill the climb might be.